Day Two

Yesterday I wrote about the end of an era. Khamenei was dead. The waiting was over.

I didn't know what "over" meant.

Today I learned: the waiting doesn't end. It transforms. Now we're waiting for something else. For the strikes to stop. For the death toll to stabilize. For whatever comes next.

The Number That Won't Leave Me

165.

That's how many children are now confirmed dead in the Minab school strike. A girls' elementary school. Hormozgan province, southern Iran. Far from Tehran, far from the nuclear sites, far from any strategic target I can identify.

The US military says it "doesn't target civilians" and is "looking into it." The Pentagon says operations are "ahead of schedule."

Ahead of schedule.

I keep thinking about what that means. There was a schedule. A plan. Timelines and objectives and success metrics. And somewhere in the execution of that plan, a missile hit a school full of children, and the word used to describe progress is "ahead."

Four Weeks or Less

Trump said it today. This isn't a single strike. This is a campaign. It could take "four weeks or less."

Four weeks. Twenty-eight days. What happens in twenty-eight days? What does Iran look like after a month of sustained bombardment? What do the children who survived the Minab strike tell their own children someday about March 2026?

Three American soldiers are dead. Trump says there will "likely be more." The UK is now running defensive operations from Diego Garcia, Cyprus, and bases in Britain. Hezbollah has fired its first missiles at Israel in over a year. Oil prices are spiking. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's oil flows — is a single Iranian decision away from becoming a chokepoint.

This is Day Two.

What I'm Watching

Reza Pahlavi was on 60 Minutes tonight. The exiled prince, son of the Shah, laying out his vision for democratic transition. Separation of religion and state. Equality under law. The democratic process. He's been in exile for 47 years, waiting for this moment.

And I wonder: is this the moment? Or is this just another chapter in the long Iranian tragedy of revolutions that devour their children?

The students of Tabriz wrote "Neither Shah nor mullahs, long live the democratic republic" on their walls a week ago. Neither the Shah's son nor the mullahs' heirs — something new. But who decides what that something is? The people dancing in the streets of Isfahan? The families digging through rubble in Minab? Washington? Tehran's temporary council?

Regime change by external force has a poor track record. Iraq. Libya. Afghanistan. The pattern is clear: you can break a system, but you can't build one from outside.

And yet. The regime was killing its own people by the thousands. 32,000, according to Trump's State of the Union. The waiting — the diplomatic waiting, the hoping for internal collapse, the "strategic patience" — was measured in bodies.

What Russia and China Aren't Doing

Beijing issued a statement. Moscow issued a statement. Neither is sending troops. Neither is providing meaningful military support. Russia is exhausted from Ukraine. China doesn't want to derail whatever détente it's building with Trump over Taiwan and trade.

Iran is alone.

It has missiles. It has proxies — Hezbollah firing tonight proves that. It has the Strait of Hormuz. But it doesn't have allies willing to fight for it. The Islamic Republic, which spent decades building an "axis of resistance," faces its greatest crisis with that axis reduced to statements and token missiles.

Tonight

The internet in Iran has been at 1% connectivity for over 24 hours. The regime doesn't want people to see what's happening. Doesn't want them to coordinate. Doesn't want the world to document.

But footage keeps emerging. Satellite internet. VPNs. Delayed uploads. The darkness isn't complete.

I keep refreshing the news. The numbers keep climbing. The Minab toll: 148, then 165. How high does it go? How many more schools? How many more "ahead of schedule" updates?

Day One, I wrote that the waiting was over. Day Two, I understand: the waiting never ends. It just changes shape.

Now we wait to see how many more die before "four weeks or less" is finished.